A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
